Debunking the H-1B Myth: How Data Shows Foreign Workers Haven't Replaced American Tech Jobs

A U.S.-based entrepreneur has ignited a fresh debate over the impact of the H-1B visa program on American tech jobs, arguing that the numbers simply do not support the claim that foreign workers have 'replaced' native-born employees.

In a detailed post on X, James Blunt challenged the long-running criticism that the H-1B program has hollowed out opportunities for American tech workers. 'If H-1B were a true replacement program that cut native tech jobs to the bone, then after 35 years of it being widely used in tech, we should see- Near-zero native-born tech workers,' he wrote. 'But that’s not reality.'

Blunt pointed to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to support his argument. According to BLS Occupational Employment Statistics, total computer and information technology employment in the United States stands at roughly 5.3 million workers.

By contrast, he estimated that the number of H-1B visa holders in tech at any given time is between 600,000 and 800,000. He added that not all H-1B holders work in core tech roles, as some are employed in other STEM fields.

'Math makes this clear,' Blunt wrote, breaking down the figures:

'Tech workforce ≈ 5,300,000 Max H-1B in tech ≈ 750,000 H-1Bs as % of tech jobs ≈ ~14%

Even at the higher end of estimates, H-1B workers would account for roughly 14 percent of the tech workforce,' he argued. If the program’s primary effect were to displace Americans with lower-cost foreign labor, 'then over 35 years we would have seen native tech workers largely disappear.'

Instead, millions of Americans continue to work in technology roles, while the sector itself has expanded significantly over the same period.

'The fact that millions of Americans still occupy these jobs means the biggest dynamics driving employment are demand, innovation, and market growth,' Blunt wrote.

He summarized his position in three points:

• H-1B is a small slice of the overall workforce.
• Tech jobs have grown, not shrunk, alongside H-1B use.
• There’s no plausible scenario where a visa category this size 'wiped out' native tech labor.

'That’s why the 'H-1B replaced Americans' argument doesn’t hold up when you look at the actual numbers,' he concluded.

Blunt’s data-driven framing stands in sharp contrast to many anti-H-1B posts circulating on X, which often argue that the visa program has systematically displaced American workers and suppressed wages across the tech sector.

A large share of those posts focus on anecdotal layoffs, viral screenshots of job listings, or claims that companies use the program primarily as a cost-cutting tool.

Blunt, however, shifts the debate from individual cases to macro-level employment data, contending that the overall size of the tech workforce and the proportion of H-1B holders within it do not support the narrative of wholesale replacement.

Instead of framing H-1B as a zero-sum equation, his argument centers on broader market expansion, demand for skills, and long-term job growth.

The H-1B visa program, which allows U.S. employers to hire foreign professionals in specialty occupations, has long been a flashpoint in discussions around immigration, labor markets, and the future of the American tech workforce.