AI Won't Steal Your IT Job (Yet): Indian Study Reveals Surprising Hiring Trends in Tech

A recent study by the Indian think tank ICRIER (Council for Research on International Economic Relations) has found that AI is not an immediate threat to India's IT services sector, despite widespread fears of job losses.

The AI and Jobs Study

ICRIER published a case study titled "AI and Jobs This Time Is No Different" that surveyed 651 IT firms and interviewed industry leaders. The research concludes that AI will impact the job market similarly to past waves of automation: initial concerns about massive job losses will give way to rising productivity, lower costs, and ultimately net positive employment opportunities as AI-enabled products expand consumption.

Key Findings on Hiring Trends

While hiring in the Indian IT sector has moderated (with major outsourcers like HCL, Infosys, TCS, and Wipro showing stalled growth), the strongest demand from employers is for roles most exposed to AI, such as software analysts, developers, and mathematicians. This suggests that AI is functioning primarily as a complement to high-skill technical work rather than as a substitute.

A majority of firms reported significant productivity gains after AI adoption, including higher-quality output and time and cost savings.

Impact on Employment

• 27% of firms expect their headcount to shrink due to AI adoption.
• 28% expect to hire more workers.
• 44% anticipate no major change.

However, more than half of respondents plan to slow hiring for entry-level staff, and the think tank has observed a "general moderation" in early career hiring.

Future Optimism and Challenges

ICRIER is optimistic about India's job prospects in the AI era, noting that the country has one of the world's largest pools of AI-skilled workers and will benefit from growing global demand for AI-enabled products. The study predicts large and sustained increases in demand for Indian workers in the medium to long term.

Yet, the think tank warns that India's IT firms are not hiring enough workers with skills in large language model operations, not expanding R&D divisions, and not investing adequately in training and upskilling. Challenges include a shortage of qualified AI trainers, limited AI skills among new labor market entrants, and policy uncertainty.

Conclusion

The study emphasizes that while AI may reshape certain roles, it is unlikely to lead to widespread job losses in the near future, especially for high-skill positions. Instead, it highlights the need for strategic investments in skills development to fully harness AI's potential.